(a) International Supply and demand of natural rubber
Supply and demand is the most fundamental factor affecting the price of natural rubber. At present, the global natural rubber producing countries are Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Chinese, Vietnam and India, because of Chinese India itself, glue, and Vietnamese natural rubber production currently beyond and above three compared therefore, a major exporter of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. This three has been founded in 2002 natural rubber (ITRCo), regional sales alliance unified measures to limit production price (base price of 80 cents / kg), and Vietnam and Sri Lanka is also actively preparing to join the organization. While the global natural rubber consumption in most countries and regions in the United States, Chinese, Western Europe and Japan, among them, the natural rubber production Chinese itself can meet the national consumption of about 1/3, the rest to be imported, the United States, Western Europe and Japan are completely dependent on imports. It is obvious that the supply and demand of natural rubber, which are the main exporting countries and the main importing countries and regions, play the most basic and most important influence on the price of natural rubber.
(two) domestic supply and demand of natural rubber
Natural rubber made in China has been in short supply situation, therefore, before the natural rubber imports is not fully liberalized, the domestic supply of natural rubber has some influence on China's natural rubber price.
However, after China's accession to the WTO, the government how to honor the WTO commitments, adjust the import and export policy, has become an important factor affecting the import of natural rubber and natural rubber prices in china. China's imports of natural rubber in the implementation of the "two card" management, processing part and the double limit part is called the tax, customs import of natural rubber in the two ways of tracking, supervision of the flow and use of general trade, only can flow into the market, and to participate in the futures market for delivery. 2004, the state canceled the natural rubber quota management. With the gradual realization of China's accession to the WTO commitments, the state may also adjust the above provisions.
(three) international and domestic economic environment
As an important industrial raw material, the price fluctuation of natural rubber is closely related to the international and domestic economic environment. When the economic environment for the better, the needs of the market development and demand is sufficient, at this time, the demand for natural rubber will increase, thus promoting the prices; instead, when the economic environment to evil, market pessimism, serious lack of demand, the demand for natural rubber will be reduced, thus contributing to the decline in Asia in 1997 the outbreak of the financial crisis lead rubber prices plummeted is a case in point. Therefore, the international and domestic economic environment is good or bad will affect the long-term trend of natural rubber prices.
(four) the development of the main rubber industry
The largest natural rubber consumption is the automobile industry (about 65% of the total consumption of natural rubber), and the development of the automotive industry to promote the progress of the tire manufacturing industry. Therefore, the development of the automotive industry and related tire industry will affect the price of natural rubber. Especially in the automotive industry, its development is directly related to tire production, thereby affecting the global demand and price of natural rubber. In Europe and the United States, Japan and other countries of the automotive industry has entered a stable development, the demand for natural rubber is relatively stable, relatively speaking, China's auto industry has just started, there is a lot of room for future development. Therefore, the domestic natural rubber prices will be affected by the development of the automobile industry and tire industry.
With the continuous improvement of rubber products, the selection of raw materials has changed, many products have been done using synthetic rubber instead of natural rubber. When the supply of natural rubber tight or price increases, many manufacturers will choose to use synthetic rubber, the complementarity between the two will be more and more strong. At the same time, because the synthetic rubber belongs to the petrochemical product, its price is affected by the upstream product oil. In fact, oil prices have been fluctuating, so oil price fluctuations will affect the price of synthetic rubber and natural rubber prices.
(six) natural factors
Natural rubber tree growth has certain requirements on the geographical and climatic conditions, suitable for tapping rubber trees generally have 5 to 7 years of age, therefore, cannot change the number of short period natural rubber tree can be used for tapping in. The main factors affecting the yield of natural rubber are: 1. Cut into the opening season, the price of plastic fell into the stop cutting season, plastic prices. 2, climate factors. Typhoon or tropical storm, continuous rain, drought, frost and so will reduce the yield of natural rubber and rubber prices. 3, pests and diseases. Such as powdery mildew, root disease, such as anthrax, which will affect the rubber tree growth, and even lead to death, affecting the yield and price of natural rubber is also great.
(seven) exchange rate changes
In recent years, due to the instability of the global economy, frequent changes in exchange rates, the price of natural rubber, especially import and export business has a certain impact. Therefore, when the attention of the international market of natural rubber market, must pay attention to all countries especially exchange rate changes in three major producing countries, and the yen against the dollar. Data show that, through the correlation analysis of the relationship between the yen and the dollar exchange rate and the price of natural rubber TOCOM, therefore, the cost of the yen against the dollar exchange rate on imports of natural rubber have a corresponding impact, causing the domestic rubber price changes.
(eight) political factors
In addition to political factors including the influence of government policy on natural rubber import and export, more important is that major events and emergencies worldwide has happened and will happen, such as the occurrence of catastrophic events and possible war factors etc..
(nine) the impact of international market transactions
Natural rubber has become a mature variety in the international futures market, and has a certain market share. Therefore, the main place of natural rubber futures, the trading price of such as Japan's TOCOM and OME, Chinese SHFE, Singapore SICOM and KLCE of Malaysia futures exchange between each other also have different effects.
For investors, domestic natural rubber futures, engaged in trading of SHFE natural rubber futures, not only pay attention to the main natural rubber futures market foreign transactions, at the same time, but also concerned about Hainan, Yunnan, Qingdao and other domestic spot market prices of natural rubber.